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Old 02-29-2012, 05:43 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Virginia
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Default China Steady On For EVs

China has yet to make serious in roads to the US auto market, but that day is coming.

The mainstream media's assertion that 2011 was a disappointment for the EV market is dead wrong and a prime example of how we tend to overestimate what can happen in the next few years, and underestimate what can happen in the next 10-20 years.

The Prius in its first year sold around 5000 units. In the first full year EVs sold over 17,000 units. The Prius was a small evolutionary step. Basically a gas engine car with electric motor assist. EVs are complete revolution of the drive train. That 17,000 stood up and took the chance on the technology is remarkable.

We just finished the first full year of production and already comes news of a battery development that would drop the price of a $10,000 battery down to $1,250.

Over the past century the US and other nations spent billions and billions developing and refining and improving the gas engine. We’ve mass produced the gas engine by the billions.. And yet the electric motor of the 1900s is still, spectacularly more efficient than the gas engine. Our only challenge is to find more cost effective ways of supplying electrons to the motor.

We are only just beginning to mass produce traction batteries and already the advances are coming fast and furious.

Meanwhile here in the states while some urbanites are finding it extremely difficult to secure a charging situation.

By contrast take a look at this article about BYD and what the city of Shenzhen is proposing to do. Buy an electric car and the city will install a charging post at your house and at your work place. Shazaam Shenzhen!

Even more potent is what Beijing has done. There is a massive waiting list to get permission to have a car there. Those buying EVs move to the front of the line. The Chinese are clearly very serious about EVs.

Every nation that builds cars is subsidizing the production of EVs and charging infrastructure. We can either figure out how to build cost effective EVs at home or we will end up buying them from abroad.

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