Jeff Cobb at www.gm-volt.com
in a post today asks "what if electric cars are not the future" in response to a post by John McElroy at Wards Auto Web site. McElroy concludes that we are not yet at peak oil and will not be for the forseeable future.
Of course the premise of McElroy's arugment is that waning oil supply is the main reason to switch to EVs. But waning oil supply is only one of the many compelling reasons to move off gasoline, and not one that is often stated by consumers interested in EVs. Energy independence, and concern for the enivironment are typically the top two.
And there is no doubt that history is littered with false starts on EVs. GM's EV1 being only the latest iteration of that. However, never before have so many companies, from so many countries made such big bets on EVs.
It is to be expected that the Oil industry will not sit idle in the face of strongest move to EVs ever seen in modern times. We should expect in the near term to see that oil supply will rise in an effort to stymie EV production. It was only last month that a Saudi Prince Talal faced the camera's and said "we don't want the West to go and find alternatives, because, clearly, the higher the price of oil goes, the more they have incentives to go and find alternatives."
In my estimation it will be too little too late. For the average driver, even the Volt costs less to operate than even a Prius as long as gas is above $1.40 per gallon. And for a typical car that number is closer to 60 cents/gallon. For the Leaf and presumably the Focus EV the numbers would be slightly lower. Don't think the Oil Industry has the will or abilitly to oversupply enough to get it to that level.
http://gm-volt.com/2011/06/29/what-if-e ... %e2%80%99/